Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Economic Odds and Ends

Great chart from Calculated Risk

I had looked at this earlier with total borrowing but this chart focuses solely on the mortgage market. Here you can see how securitization really takes hold at the end of 2004 through 2006, somewhere in the order of 40% of the market. Since then there was a switch into bank portfolio loans as the securitizations came onto the bank's balance sheets, and finally the current state where the GSEs (Frannie and Ginnie) now make up 90+% of the market.

Good annotated chart from Mish Shedlock

Here you can clearly see the dichotomy of the recessions pre-1982 and post and it is a tale of two eras. Job recoveries have always been a "lagging indicator," but I wonder now if NBER calls the end of the recession too soon [queue conspiracy theorists "Nothing to see here. Move along."] So the recession of the 90's and the twin killings in the 2000's have both had job losses continue into the recovery. We should expect that job losses will continue into 2010 and possible 2011, most likely with an upper limit of over 10.5%, that is on the U-3 number. If you look at the broader unemployment situation ( underemployed, discouraged, part time, etc) we are already nearing the 20% mark.

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