Wednesday, October 21, 2009


David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff has been railing against the markets expecting a V-shaped recovery. So I went to the CBO to see what a V-shaped recovery would look like and it is below.

Basically from where we are at we would follow the red arrow and see growth rates of over 6.4% to return the economy back to its trend.

Here is where the document is a little suspect as it predicts the return to trend within 5 years which seems to be, um, a tad, convenient. I guess my argument would be more with the angle of the L.

Regardless, the CBO still sees an L-shaped recovery.

So what does the equity market know from reading the economic reports that the CBO does not know?

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